Decide Before You're Certain

Bayesian Thinking for Product Managers

von Adrian Keller

148 Seiten, Taschenbuch

Kurzbeschreibung des Verlags

Product managers make bets every day.

You rarely have enough data. User research is messy. A/B tests are underpowered. Stakeholders disagree. And yet you still have to decide.

Decide Before You're Certain gives product managers a practical Bayesian framework for making better decisions under uncertainty. Instead of pretending the data speaks for itself, you will learn how to combine prior knowledge, new evidence, and real-world consequences to make decisions you can defend.

Through concrete product examples, simple math, and spreadsheet-friendly tools, Adrian Keller shows how to:

- turn intuition into explicit priors- interpret small-sample evidence without overreacting- read A/B tests beyond p-values- decide when more data is worth waiting for- prioritize uncertain product bets- forecast roadmaps with ranges instead of false precision>The book follows one practical loop: > Evidence -> Posterior -> Stakes -> Decision -> Outcome -> New Prior.

The goal is not perfect prediction. The goal is better judgment.

A practical guide for product managers, founders, product analysts, and decision-makers who need to act before certainty arrives.

• Reihe: Independently published
• ISBN: 9798175491754
• Sprache: Englisch
• Erscheinungsdatum: 19.09.2026
• Größe: 229 x 152 mm
• Verlag: Independently published